Chapter 9: CH9 - Plaza Accord
The Next Day,
11 Downing Street, London, England.
A three-story red brick building with four prominent columns at the front, styled in 17th-century architecture, stood on the main street. The building, with the Union Jack fluttering on its outer wall, bore the inscription "Treasury" at its entrance.
Inside the room, decorated in a classic style with luxurious furniture and expensive artwork, a dignified middle-aged man sat at a large desk. He was none other than Henry, the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Henry, who epitomized the quintessential British gentleman, sipped tea from a white porcelain cup with gold trimmings as he reviewed a report. Just as he was enjoying the aroma of the perfectly brewed tea and flipping to the next page of the report, there was a knock at the door, and Leo, his neatly groomed secretary, entered.
"Minister, there's an urgent matter I need to report."
Seeing the grim look on his secretary's face, Henry set down his teacup and responded calmly.
"What is it that has you looking like that?"
"The foreign exchange market is behaving unusually."
"Behaving unusually, you say?"
Henry's brow furrowed slightly as he looked at Leo, who quickly explained the situation.
"The exchange rate has dropped 0.25 cents today, falling to $1.4550."
Henry leaned back in his chair, dismissing the news.
"That's a significant drop, but it's not something to be too concerned about."
Leo, still looking tense, continued.
"Indeed, but the problem is that a particular group seems to be intentionally driving down the exchange rate."
"…!"
Henry's expression stiffened as he looked at Leo.
"Are you certain?"
"Yes, we've confirmed that a specific hedge fund has been heavily shorting the pound."
"Where is this happening?"
Leo answered immediately, sensing the urgency in Henry's tone.
"It's Quantum Fund."
Henry raised his eyebrows.
"Quantum Fund? You mean the hedge fund run by George Soros?"
"Yes, that's correct."
"Damn it!"
Unlike his usual demeanor, always exuding sophistication and dignity befitting a British gentleman, Henry couldn't help but curse.
George Soros had started Quantum Fund with $12 million and, within a few years, had grown it into a multi-billion-dollar operation, becoming a legendary figure on Wall Street. His most famous achievement was predicting and betting on the appreciation of the yen and the Deutsche Mark under American pressure, making $230 million in just four months after the Plaza Accord—a feat still talked about today.
The prestigious British economic press had even named him "the greatest fund manager on earth," so Henry was well aware of who George Soros was. Knowing that such a heavyweight was targeting the pound, Henry couldn't help but feel tense.
"How much have they shorted?"
"Over $1 billion. And it's not just Quantum Fund—several other large orders have been placed, resulting in $2 billion more than usual being traded today alone."
"Hmmm."
Henry frowned deeply and let out a strained sound as he spoke.
"I had a bad feeling about this after Germany refused to budge during the Bath meeting. Now look at the mess we're in."
Biting his lip, Henry picked up the phone on the corner of his desk.
[Yes, Minister?]
"Get me Governor Arthur of the Bank of England."
[Right away, sir.]
Henry, with a hardened expression, waited as he held the phone to his ear. It wasn't long before he was connected to Arthur, the Governor of the Bank of England.
[Hello?]
"It's me. I've heard that Soros has been aggressively shorting the pound. Were you aware of this?"
[We're in the middle of a meeting about that very issue.]
Arthur's voice over the phone sounded tense as well. Adjusting his grip on the receiver, Henry spoke with a serious tone.
"I trust there won't be any problems defending the exchange rate."
[Of course. Soros may be a big player on Wall Street, but this time he's picked the wrong opponent.]
"I've heard that $2 billion more than usual was traded today alone. With the market under such attack, won't the exchange rate be shaken?"
Arthur responded confidently, despite Henry's concern.
[The Bank of England currently holds over £60 billion in foreign exchange reserves.]
£60 billion was an enormous amount, equivalent to over $80 billion.
[I don't know how much Soros has at his disposal, but he won't achieve his goal. He's in for a rude awakening.]
Henry felt reassured by Arthur's confident words, and his expression relaxed.
"Still, don't underestimate him. If you need anything, don't hesitate to ask."
[I won't, sir.]
Ending the call, Henry put the receiver down. Despite Arthur's reassurances, Henry couldn't shake the nagging unease that lingered, like a tiny, invisible thorn lodged in his fingertip. Looking up at Leo, who was still standing before him, Henry gave an order.
"Report any fluctuations in the exchange rate to me immediately until this situation is resolved."
"Understood."
After Leo left the room, Henry glanced down at his now cold teacup before standing and walking over to the window. In typical British fashion, the once-clear sky had quickly turned overcast, threatening rain at any moment.
"How dare some hedge fund try to take on the Bank of England. It's all the Germans' fault."
Muttering to himself, Henry scowled at the gloomy sky.
***
Two Days Later, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
[
Finland Abandons Markka's Peg to Deutsche Mark Amid Plummeting Exchange Rate!
Tuesday, September 8th: Under relentless attack by speculative sellers, the Finnish markka has continued to plunge, leading the Finnish government to announce the sudden abandonment of its peg to the Deutsche Mark. With Finland having capitulated, international speculators are now eyeing Sweden, Italy, and Spain as their next targets, with the British pound also reportedly under threat. In fact, the British pound has fallen sharply from $1.4800 to $1.4350 per pound over the past week. While concerns grow in the market, British Prime Minister Isaac has expressed confidence in an interview, asserting that the Bank of England's reserves are ample enough to defend the exchange rate. However, George Soros, a prominent Wall Street hedge fund manager, has likened the British pound to a currency suffering from malaria, warning that without change, it will inevitably collapse. Meanwhile…]
"They've even started ramping up the media campaign."
Although it was early September and autumn was just beginning, the warm sun still shone brightly. Sitting alone at an outdoor table in the cafeteria, Seok-won read through the article in the Wall Street Journal before setting the newspaper down and muttering to himself.
Soros, who was usually media-shy and had earned the nickname "the reclusive investor," had, in recent days, been unusually active. Not only in the Wall Street Journal but also in prominent outlets like The Times in the UK and Le Figaro in France, Soros had been giving interviews, consistently predicting a bleak future for the pound.
This could only mean one thing.
"He's practically shouting to everyone that there's easy prey here."
It was what's known as the "announcer effect," where the goal is to steer public opinion in a desired direction.
"With Soros making moves, even those who were hesitant, thinking the pound might not fall, will likely join in the massive sell-off. No matter how strong a defense the Bank of England mounts, it will eventually crumble."
That was exactly what happened in real history. Soros's ability to precisely identify weaknesses and the flow of money was impressive, but what struck Seok-won most was Soros's relentless use of every available means to ruthlessly crush his opponents before they could respond.
Over the past few days, Seok-won had been steadily selling pounds as well, leaving him with only about $400 million in his trading account.
"I'd love to go all in right now, but I'll save that for the final blow, when I can force the Bank of England to surrender."
Although Seok-won knew that the Bank of England would eventually fold, the knockout punch needed to be as powerful as possible. After folding the newspaper and placing it in his backpack, Seok-won finished the last piece of his sandwich and stood up.
Then he got on his bike and rode back to his dorm. As he pulled out the key and opened the door, a familiar shout greeted his ears.
[Hadouken!]
[Shoryuken!!]
With the lively background music and the distinctive sound effects, a character on the TV screen unleashed a special move.
"Come on, just one more hit! A kick will finish him!"
Roy was gripping his controller, veins bulging in his neck. A few days ago, he had somehow managed to pick up a CRT TV, and now he was skipping lectures and playing games all day.
[K.O!! You Win!]
"Yes! That's it!"
Having defeated the opposing character with a combo, Roy jumped up and punched the air.
'How did he even get into Harvard?'
Now that he thought about it, Seok-won had never seen Roy actually study. Shaking his head, Seok-won slung his backpack off his shoulder and set it down beside the bed.
"Oh, you're back?" Roy, who had been reveling in his victory, turned his head upon noticing Seok-won.
"Hey, you should go out for a walk or something. Every time I see you, you're playing games."
"Ooh, mind your own business~"
Roy grinned and raised his middle finger.
"To execute a special move properly, you need delicate finger movements. I've got an important tournament coming up, so I've been practicing."
"Tournament?"
"Yeah! We're going to have a league match against the MIT guys to decide who's the best!"
Roy's eyes blazed with passion as he shouted.
Harvard vs. MIT was an epic showdown, but to think that the game of choice was a fighting game… It made one wonder if this was really the best use of elite minds in the top 1%.
"Yeah, good luck with that."
Seok-won shrugged and gave a half-hearted cheer.
"Who knows? Maybe Street Fighter will become an Olympic event one day, and you could go as a national representative."
"Why are you suddenly talking about the Olympics?"
Roy laughed, clearly thinking it was a ridiculous idea.
"No matter how much of a gamer I am, that's too much. The Olympics? Come on."
As Roy chuckled to himself, Seok-won muttered internally.
'What are you going to do when it actually happens?'
Seok-won knew that in the future, the profession of "pro gamer" would emerge, and players would indeed earn the national team badge. But telling Roy that now would only lead to disbelief.
Seok-won glanced at the Nintendo Super Famicom connected to the TV, triggering a memory.
'Speaking of which, after Soros forced the Bank of England to surrender, he targeted Japan next. There's no way I'm sitting that out.'
Perhaps misinterpreting Seok-won's gaze, Roy pointed to the Famicom with his chin.
"What, want to give it a try? How about a match?"
"No thanks."
"Come on, I'll go easy on you. Don't tell me you don't know how to play?"
Roy taunted, trying to provoke Seok-won. Feeling his competitive spirit stir, Seok-won responded.
"How about a $10 bet?"
He immediately pulled out a $10 bill from his wallet and slapped it onto the table. Roy's eyes widened, but then he grinned.
"Oh, coming in strong, huh? Fine by me—I could use some extra cash."
Clearly not considering the possibility of losing, Roy placed his own $10 bill on top of Seok-won's.
"I'll give you two rounds."
"No need. Let's settle it in one."
As Seok-won confidently rolled up his sleeves, Roy let out a mocking "Oooh."
"You're going to regret that."
"I doubt it."
"Alright, then, deal!"
Roy, even more pumped, snapped his fingers and handed over a second controller.
'Little does he know, they used to call me the Yeouido Lightning Hands. I'll make sure he never underestimates me again—time to show him the arcade skills that ruled the scene.'
Seok-won smirked as he rolled up his shirt sleeves.
He had honed his skills to the max, making each coin last as long as possible. That's how he had earned the nickname "Yeouido Lightning Hands."
Now, it was time to resurrect those skills, honed to the point where his hands moved so fast they were almost invisible.
TL/n -
The Union Jack or Union Flag is the de facto national flag of the United Kingdom.
***
I already have explained the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) previously in detail.
***
George Soros did profit during the period surrounding the Plaza Accord. The Plaza Accord, signed in September 1985, aimed to devalue the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark to correct trade imbalances.
While the exact amount George Soros earned during the period surrounding the Plaza Accord isn't publicly detailed, it's well-documented that he made substantial profits. His strategic positioning in the currency markets, particularly betting on the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, resulted in significant gains.
***
For Finance People =>
The Plaza Accord was a significant agreement signed on September 22, 1985, at the Plaza Hotel in New York City. It involved the finance ministers and central bank governors of the G-5 nations: the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
1. Depreciate the U.S. Dollar: The primary goal was to weaken the U.S. dollar relative to the Japanese yen and the German Deutsche Mark. This was intended to correct trade imbalances, particularly the large U.S. trade deficit.
2. Boost Domestic Demand: The agreement included commitments from Japan and Germany to stimulate their domestic economies through measures like tax cuts.
---
For Non-Finance People =>
Imagine five friends (the United States, Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom) who regularly trade toys with each other. One day, they notice that the U.S. friend has a lot of toys from everyone else but isn't giving as many toys back. This imbalance is causing some problems.
The Plan
To fix this, they all agreed to make the U.S. friend's toys (the U.S. dollar) less valuable compared to the toys from Japan and Germany (the yen and the Deutsche Mark). This way, the U.S. friend can trade more easily because their toys are cheaper and more attractive to the others.
The Outcome
1. Cheaper U.S. Toys: The U.S. toys become cheaper, so the other friends start buying more from the U.S.
2. Trade Balance: This helps balance the trade, as the U.S. starts giving more toys back in exchange.
3. Economic Effects: While this helps the U.S., it also causes some challenges for Japan and Germany, who have to adjust to the new toy values.
In essence, the Plaza Accord was an agreement to make the U.S. dollar less expensive so that the U.S. could sell more goods to other countries and help balance trade.
***
The term "Bath meeting" can refer to various events or gatherings held in the city of Bath, UK.
***
In 1992, Finland faced severe economic challenges, including a deep recession and a banking crisis. To stabilize the economy, Finland had pegged (marked) its currency, the markka, to the Deutsche Mark. However, as the economic situation worsened and the exchange rate plummeted, maintaining this peg (mark) became unsustainable.
On September 8, 1992, Finland decided to abandon the peg, allowing the markka to float freely. This move was aimed at restoring economic stability and competitiveness by letting market forces determine the currency's value.
***
The Finnish markka was the currency of Finland from 1860 until February 28, 2002. It was replaced by the euro (€) at a fixed conversion rate of 1 euro = 5.94573 markkaa.