Easy Tycoon

Chapter 275 "The Plaza Accord"

Hearing Yang Jing's words, Cesar and the others nodded excitedly.

Since the end of the last London gold investment operation, Cesar's trading is not limited to the London gold market. They have been keeping a low profile in the past few years, and began to shift their work focus to major stock markets and They are on the foreign exchange market, so they know very well that compared with the gold market and major stock markets, investment in the foreign exchange market often takes longer to plan, and once the investment in the foreign exchange market is successful, although the gains are huge, it also takes a long time to complete. Harvest of benefits.

In the foreign exchange market, a relatively large and purposeful investment often takes several months or even half a year, and the one year mentioned by the boss is actually not very long in the face of such a large amount of funds. .

"Okay, Boss, since you have taken care of us so much, then we will take over the trading task of this investment operation!" Hearing Yang Jing's words were so firm, Cesar didn't want to say more about this, so he just said A decision was made.

"Okay! Now that you have accepted this mission, let me talk about the specific action plan."

Yang Jing greeted all the people present, and they all followed Yang Jing into an operation room on the first floor that was specially used for trading.

This room was remodeled from a large bedroom, covering an area of ​​more than 30 square meters. There are several connected workbenches inside, and each workbench has a telephone and a fax machine. The most eye-catching one is It's the desktop computer that's on every desk.

This is a computer with a very strange shape. Of course, this strange shape is aimed at Yang Jing. To Mike Aller and Cesar, this computer is extremely advanced and sci-fi.

"Wow, BOSS, are these computers the 286 computer that IBM launched last July?" Albert recognized the identity of this desktop computer at a glance.

Yang Jing nodded with a smile and said: "That's right, these five computers are the latest computers launched by IBM last year, and they use Intel's 80286 processor. At present, they belong to the most advanced civilian computers. Cesar, you all know how to operate this thing, right?"

Cesar and the others nodded, expressing that they would operate this new machine.

In fact, even if there is a computer at this time, the real application for civilian use is still very narrow.After all, in this era, the Internet is only used by the military, and the civilian Internet has not yet been seen.

Without the Internet, no matter how advanced your computer is, it is useless.Without the Internet, the computer is like a [-]-meter world champion who has lost his legs.

"Boss, these computers are only suitable for calculating all kinds of data, and transactions have to rely on telephones and fax machines." Cesar pointed out the limitations of these computers in one sentence.

"I understand that I bought these computers for you to facilitate your work." They clapped their hands and attracted the attention of the team members who were fiddling with those computers. "Guys, are you still satisfied with the environment here?"

Several people nodded in satisfaction. Although this is not the most professional trading room, the conditions are very good. Even if you work here for a year, it will not be so uncomfortable.

"Okay, since you are all satisfied with the conditions here, then I'll start talking." Yang Jing looked at a few people, motioned them to sit down, and then said: "This time our investment goal is only two One, one is the yen and the other is the dollar. What you need to do is to short the dollar and long the yen.”

Cesar nodded to express his understanding and said, "Boss, can you explain it in detail?"

"That's no problem. Presumably you have felt deeply about the continued strength of the dollar in recent years, right?"

Albert smiled wryly and said: "Yes, BOSS, the strength of the U.S. dollar over the years and the high interest rate policy of the U.S. government have kept the U.S. dollar at a high level. To be honest, the few of us are very worried about this. How long can this situation last. The current strength of the dollar is really scary. In your words back then, it would be too much. If this state continues, it will be too dangerous.”

Yang Jing snapped his fingers in satisfaction and said: "Albert is right. In fact, I also think that the high level of the dollar should not last long. This state of the dollar has seriously affected the Various unfavorable situations in the United States, even Japan and major European countries have been greatly affected. If the current situation is not changed, the whole world will face a disaster. Therefore, I think the depreciation of the US dollar has come and is inevitable hair phase."

Yang Jing tapped the table with his finger and continued: "Actually, such a situation did not happen overnight, but was caused by a series of stupid decisions made by the Washington authorities over a period of seven or eight years. Yes. As early as 1977, the United States proposed to devalue the dollar because of the large trade surplus of Japan and Germany with the United States. Although it was only a verbal statement by the US Treasury Secretary at that time, it also triggered a crisis of dollar depreciation. Since 1977 From the beginning of the year to the autumn of 1978, the US dollar depreciated by more than 20% in just over 40 months! This crazy depreciation panicked the Carter administration, so President Carter formulated the stupid 'package plan to save the dollar' Actions that want the dollar to come back and appreciate again.”

"Carter's plan should be considered wise at the time, but Carter probably didn't expect that this plan had just been implemented not long ago, because the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in Iran led to the second oil crisis, coupled with At this time, the U.S. dollar appreciated strongly again, which resulted in serious inflation in the United States.”

Cesar smiled and said: "Boss, I know what you said. At that time, the inflation in the United States was very serious. Otherwise, Paul Volcker, who was the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time, would not have implemented it urgently when he took office. Raised official interest rates three times in a row and implemented tight monetary policy."

Yang Jing nodded with a smile and said: "This is a typical case where a foot is treated for a foot, and a headache is treated for a head. Paul Volcker's continuous increase in official interest rates has indeed curbed inflation, but it has also caused a series of unfavorable situations in another aspect. .Because of the increase in the official interest rate in the United States, a large amount of foreign funds flowed into the United States, which directly caused the US dollar to appreciate by 60% in just five years! The direct result of the rapid appreciation of the US dollar was that the US government appeared A large fiscal deficit and a further expansion of the trade deficit.”

"That's why a country's economy should not be treated with a head and a foot, but should be considered comprehensively. The Carter and Reagan administrations have been tossing around, and the final result is the current situation of riding a tiger."

"What's even more ridiculous is that the just-re-elected Reagan administration doesn't seem to care about the current situation at all. On the contrary, the re-elected President Reagan will add fuel to the fire. As far as I know, the comprehensive tax cut policy that Mr. Reagan has been carefully planning It will be introduced soon, and the plan to increase US military expenditure has been approved by the US Congress, and US defense orders have soared. What will this cause? It is very simple. Once the tax cut policy is approved by Congress, then tax cuts and Under the double stimulation of national defense construction, the US economy, which was originally at a low growth rate, will soon enter a channel of high-speed growth."

"In the case of a huge fiscal deficit and a high dollar, it is obviously inappropriate for the domestic economy to overheat, and it is even an irreconcilable contradiction."

Mike Aller also interjected from the side: "Yes, on the one hand, the unavoidable trade deficit is getting bigger and bigger because of the strength of the US dollar, and on the other hand, there is excess domestic production capacity in the United States. If the Reagan administration does not change , once this irreconcilable contradiction breaks out completely, it will plunge the United States and even the whole world into a kind of disaster!" As a senior accountant, Mike Aller has a relatively thorough view of macroeconomics.

Yang Jing smiled and gave Mike Aller a thumbs up to show his appreciation.

In fact, what Yang Jing just said is just a fundamental reason. Once the Reagan administration's tax cut policy + plan to increase US military spending is fully implemented, a huge speculative crisis will immediately hang over the United States.

After World War II, the world's economy slowly moved towards integration, and the closed-door policy could no longer adapt to the ever-changing economic development.The global economy has entered into a situation where one hair affects the whole body.

As the most powerful country in the world economy, the United States has always been the weathervane of the world economy. Once the Reagan administration's tax cut policy + plan to increase US military spending is fully implemented, it can be expected that in New York, Tokyo and Europe On the major foreign exchange markets, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies in the world will definitely continue to rise in an all-round way; on Wall Street, the U.S. stock market will also jump up like a bull that is holding its strength.The U.S. economy will immediately show prosperity, and the prospects for the U.S. economy seem bright.

But while the U.S. economy is thriving, the rest of the world is doing poorly.Socialist countries such as the Soviet Union are basically in a state of self-circulation. The situation in developed countries such as Japan and Western Europe is average. Developing countries in Latin America and East Asia have begun to grow rapidly, but many domestic unstable factors have yet to be improved. The war in Cambodia and regime change in South America And so on, many foreign investors are discouraged.

At a time when global investment opportunities are unclear, the U.S. economy is suddenly bright, which naturally makes many foreign investors quickly mobilize funds and flock to the U.S. market.

In the words of the famous financial speculator Soros in later generations, if financial investment is too active, market speculative factors will increase, financial "bubbles" will gradually increase, and the market's fragility and danger will naturally increase with further investment. Once the "bubble" is formed, it will naturally burst one day. At that time, the collapse of the financial market will be inevitable, and the opportunity for us to make a lot of money will follow.

Soros was able to navigate the global financial speculative market in later generations, and his vision was naturally not ordinary. Since he has seen that the US economy is actually in a dangerous process, he will naturally not give up such a good one. Chance.

Before preparing for this investment, Yang Jing consulted a lot of information. Among them, Soros gave a very detailed explanation on the speculative process of the depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of the yen.

At that time, Soros made a sharp evaluation of Reagan's economic policies from the perspective of financial investment.Soros clearly pointed out that this is a policy "worth considering". It is undeniable that this policy has stimulated the US economy, but if the stimulus is too large, the US economy may backfire.Soros named the economic development situation caused by this kind of economic policy that may do bad things with good intentions "the Reagan cycle".

The "big cycle" is caused by stimulating economic growth, but the influx of foreign capital into the U.S. financial market will cause the U.S. economy as a whole to increase its borrowing and liabilities to foreign countries at a rapid rate.At this time, if the influx of foreign capital continues, the overall cost of foreign borrowing and debt in the United States will increase. At the same time, the cost of new foreign capital entering the U.S. financial market will be relatively reduced. At any time, some inconspicuous factors will pierce the existing financial "bubble" at any time.

Reflected in the financial market, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will fall as quickly as it rose at the beginning.Foreign funds pouring into the U.S. market for huge speculative profits naturally escaped the "fall" and quickly withdrew from the U.S. financial market.The consequences of this are serious. The drastic changes in the financial market will cause the U.S. economy to rapidly decline, and the overall economy will shrink severely. The horror of the "big cycle" is here, starting from revitalization, and returning to a state of no revitalization or even recession due to over-stimulation.

In the words of Soros, in the current market, investors are worried that the increase in money supply in the financial market will cause the economy to overheat, and they are afraid that rising interest rates will cause the economy to cool down rapidly.Therefore, the stocks affected by the low interest rate policy were neglected, and the stocks stimulated by Reagan's economic policies were favored.This is a dangerous market move.In fact, the outlook for the economic boom driven by Reagan’s policy is not optimistic. The exchange rate of the US dollar has risen too much, and it will inevitably fall. The US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at any time, and the economic cooling is also predictable.

Not to mention Soros, even when they talked with Cesar and the others just now, Cesar and the others made it clear that they were frightened by the current situation of the dollar operating at such a high level, not to mention those financial speculators who specialize in financial speculation. Predators?
Anyone can see that in order to prevent the United States from falling into a terrible economic crisis due to the economic stimulus plan of the Reagan administration, the Federal Reserve and the awakened US government will inevitably take action to cool down the US economy and the dollar.However, these speculative financial predators may not be able to guess when the Fed and the US government will make a move.

But Yang Jing knew it!In September 1985, that is, about a month before now, the famous "Plaza Accord" will be officially signed.
(End of this chapter)